[Extract]

. . . If You can bear with the Tediousness of the Disquisition, I will, if You please, take a short View of the present State of all the Colonies from New York downwards, giving my Opinion, as We go along, what Effect any military Operations are likely to have in Them.

New-York, the City, I mean, is peculiarly fitted both by its Situation, & the Sentiments of the People, to be made a Place of Arms. Not less than 10,000 Men shou'd be sent thither. If they embarque in the Winter, They may expect a tempestuous Passage; &, of Course, will require Rest & Refreshment after Landing. They are more sure of These in New York than any where else. Armed Vessels can go up to Albany, &, with infinite Ease, cut off all Communication between the Northern & Southern Governments. This will be a most essential Service. If possessed of the Passes, they may go still farther back in Batteaus, should it be found necessary. And, possess'd of so large an Extent of Country, all on the Banks of a fine River, no Doubt, they will be well supply'd with Provisions. But the Interruption of all Intercourse between the united Colonies is an Advantage that can hardly be purchased too dear. And, it is most certainly practicable. The King's Troops too will find more Friends & Assistance in that Government, than in any other: in Truth, I cannot but think, they have some Reason to complain of the Neglect of Government. They have long solicited Protection, which, had it been granted, I am confident, a respectable Number of Loyalists wou'd have declar'd Themselves, There is no saying what a happy Effect this would have had all over America: I fear, it is now too late, for this. The Men of chief Note have, in general, been driven away, both from thence & every where else. Yet, the latest Advices still speak honourably of the Zeal of large Numbers: & 'twere a Pity so good a Spirit shou'd not be cherished. If there be one, among the confederated Colonies, that could yet, without Force, be brought back to Allegiance, it is New-York: at any Rate, the Strength of Government shou'd first be try'd there. Their Example wou'd have more Force than better Motives in determining others; as, to try elsewhere, & fail, might defeat the Attempt every where. Five thousand Men, stationed in New-York, so supported as, I am confident, They would there be, & with the Assistance of the armed Vessels on the River, I consider as fully sufficient to resist every military Effort of every Government to the Southward of it.

It is difficult to speak of the prevailing Sentiments of the People of Pensylvania. They seem desirous to serve two Masters, valuing Themselves on this, that they have so very dexterously managed Matters as equally to have avoided the Imputation of Toryism, & any ouvert Act of Treason. Were They really in Earnest, They, doubtless, have Men to spare: but You will judge of their Eagerness for War, by this, that, maugre all the Ordinances of their Lords, they have not yet rais'd a single Minute Man. And, I think i am pretty positive, that none will be rais'd either there or in the more Southern Governments. I foresee little Good that can be done by any military Exertions there; unless Recruits & Provisions were to be drawn from them, and they will be more easily got in the adjoining Provinces. They shou'd, however, be well watch'd, & kept in constant Fear of the Navy: not that I think it wou'd. answer any good Purpose to destroy Philadelphia, which They affect to dread; tho' it might, notwithstanding their Booms & one-gunn'd Gondolas, easily be laid under Contribution; which it deserves.

In the Aggregate of American Strength, the two Carolinas Virginia & Maryland cannot fairly be reckon'd as making any Part: it is well, if They are equal to their own internal Enemy. How far it may be prudent to keep their Fears perpetually awake, either by Apprehensions of having their Slaves armed against Them, or their savage Neighbours let loose on their Frontiers, Circumstances must determine: the actually embodying Them is, however, an Expedient which, were Humanity out of the Question, sound Policy wou'd reprobate. They resemble the Elephants in the Armies of old: they may, it is true, exceedingly annoy your Enemy, but You have no Security that, even in the Moment of Victory, They will not turn on Yourselves. ー About fifteen Years ago, by Order of Government, the Men ableto bear Arms in Maryland were numbered, & amounted to 15000. I cannot, from Memory, say how many there may be in Virginia, & the Carolinas; but, having liv'd fifteen Years & upwards in the two former Provinces, I think I may venture, with some Authority, to promise You, that, unless sought for in ー their Woods & Fastnesses, They never will seek reguiar Troops in a hostile Way. I mean not, by this, to reflect on their Courage; thinking, with Them, that it is as little their Interest, as their Inclination, to come to Blows. As to their Arming, & all their boasted Pomp of War; I look upon it as a mere Bravoe, intended only to alarm & intimidate England. ー At any Rate, however, it would be ill Policy to carry War amongst them: for, in the first Place, they never will come to an Engagement, but, in their own Way, in Woods & behind Trees; & shou'd They be defeated again & again, the only Consequence will be, that They will retreat out of Reach; & return to inflict Vengeance on any such as, under Protection of the Soldiery, may have avow'd their Loyalty, whenever that Protection shall be withdrawn. _ These Colonies, beyond all Question, are most easily to be subdued by Embargos on their Trade, the Distresses this will bring on Them will exceed those of any others, &. they are the least able to bear Them. I dread to think what will become of my own poor Slaves, next Winter. ー But, besides the Slaves, the two Tobacco Colonies have, in their very Bowels, another Enemy, not a little to be dreaded: I mean, their white Servants. The Case of this Class of Men is singular. They are decoyed from hence by romantic Promises, &, on their landing in America, are sold for their Passages; & for three, four, or five Years, are, to all Intents & Purposes; Slaves. It appears to Me to be worth while to send Troops thither, if for no other Purpose than the enlisting of these Men, whom I cannot but think peculiarly fit for the American Service. They will bring with Them an ill Humour & Prejudice against the Country, which it will not be unuseful to have propagated amongst those with whom They may be incorporated; They have some Knowledge of the Country, the Manners, & Mode of living of the People; &, above all, They have been seasoned to the Climate. How many of Them may be had, which is a very necessary Enquiry; I am almost afraid to guess, confident of This only, that there is not One in ten, who will not enlist, if He can. A Gentleman of Baltimore, not addicted to random Declarations, is positive, that five hundred may be got in that Town, & its Environs: it is certain, the richest Harvest of Them may be gleaned there, at Elk-Ridge, the Iron Works & Annapolis. If, haply, This should be thought an Object deserving Attention, I shall hardly need to say, that it will require some Address & Management: as, in this & every Thing else, the Commander may lay it to his Account to meet with every Difficulty which a peculiar Shrewdness & Subtlety can throw in his Way. Parties should be detached, at one & the same Time, in armed Vessels to the various Towns at the Heads of the Rivers in Pensylvania, Maryland & Virginia: with Instructions to have Notice spread, if possible, to the back Settlements, where most of these People have been carried. If any Natives of Consideration enter into the Service, which They should be tempted to do, They may greatly facilitate this measure: for, sanguine as I am in recommending it, it isbut fair that I apprise You of the Difficulties that will attend it. No Man, whether Native or Foreigner, Bond or free will be permitted to join the Regulars, but by Stealth: this, however, will not prevent their attempting it; Many have alre'ady run away from their Masters in Maryland, with the Hope of joining the King's Army in Boston; & I doubt not but some have succeeded.

Heretofore, Virginia was distinguished for her firm Attachment both to Church & State: They still profess the same Principles, & many do hold them, however incompatible with their present Practice. The chief Abettors of Violence among them are young Men of. good Parts, but spoil'd by a strange, imperfect, desultory Kind of Education which has crept into Fashion all over America. Some of the. Northern Academies, which, in my Wrath, I can scarce forbear calling Seminaries of Sedition, led the Way; &, like other Plagues, it soon spread. ー With Respect to the sending of Troops thither, what I have said of Maryland applys equally to Virginia: at present, They can be serviceable only in the Way abovementioned, & in foraging. All these three Provinces are every where pervious to Shipping; all abound in Grain, Stocks, & Herds, all on the Banks of Rivers, or Islands. It cannot be then, One wou'd think, but that, in such a Country, Descents may be made to some Purpose.

North Carolina is, in general, the poorest Country on the Continent, Nova Scotia excepted, & one of the Floridas. With a few very honourable Exceptions, much the same Character may ge given of the People, the Bulk of Them have been Renegadoes from the other Colonies. They are just emerging into Notice & Consideration; but have hitherto, I think, distinguished themselves only by an Insurrection about four Years ago. Early in these Confusions, some of the Counties there made a very gallant Stand against Congressional Tyranny; but, for Want of Support, like many others, I imagine, they soon fell off: tho' I was told, I remember, not many Months before I left America, that Thousands would still repair to the royal Standard, could They but see it erected. I fear, the Opportunity for this has been suffered to elapse; & a Gentleman, just arrived, from thence, confirms Me in the Opinion. In Truth, I know not well how, under the present Circumstances, even the most Loyal could declare Themselves. They live dispersed, &, of Course, can have no collective Strength; they must, therefore, fall an easy Prey to the Committees, & the Independent Companies, who, on the first appearance of a Suspicion only of their Defection, as it wou'd be called, wou'd be sure to fall on them: and, I beg Leave to ask how any Armament cou'd give Assurances of Protection to their Persons, when, perhaps, in a few Weeks, they might be ordered away, or to their Properties, in the interior Parts of the Country. On the whole, tho' persuaded that there are in all these Governments a respectable Number of People, adverse to the Measures now pursuing there, yet, anxious as I am not to misinform or mislead You, I dare not flatter You with the Hope that Many wou'd step forth, in the Cause of the Constitution, even tho' They had Troops there.

Of South Carolina I know nothing from my own Observation, having never been in it. In the Nature of Things, however, it must be weak; but, were it otherwise, shou'd the Plan I spoke of respecting N: York, be adopted, I see not how either They, or any others cou'd possibly furnish Men to the Northern Army: and it will exceed any Ideas I can form even of American Madness, for them to think of forming One in the South.

It fell not within my Province to speak of the Navy: yet, if I guess aright, the War carried on by the Ships, especially in the South, will not be the least efficacious. The Seizures that probably will be made from the Americans themselves, promise to be well calculated for the Purpose of scouring their Rivers & Creeks; a Service, in which it will be as proper to avoid giving any personal Insults, or offering any personal avoidable Injuries to unarm'd & unoffending Colonists, as it will, to be active, vigilant, firm, & determined.

All depends on the Issue of the first general Action: not to be thoroughly & totally defeated may again have the Effect of a Victory: and so not only tempt the Country at large still to go on with the War, but actually do, what nothing else could ー that is, make Soldiers of their Men. But, I augur better things; & God forbid, I should be mistaken!...

Unwilling to leave any Enquiry unsatisfied, which I cou'd suppose You likely to make, I am sorry to find what a Task I have imposed on You: but, I am not afraid to trust to your Candor to excuse this, as well as its other Demerits, to which, however, I will not add, by teizing You with Apologies.

I am, with infinite Regard & attention sir, [&c.]

P.S. I have mentioned 10,000 Men are necessary for N. York, only from an Apprehension that [David] Wooster & his trowser'd Ragamuffins might, possibly, muster up Spirits enough to attack a smaller Number, 'ere They cou'd get any Works erected. When This is done, They may be draughted out on Parties to the South. The considerable Towns shou'd always be fix'd on;&, in these, they must instantly publish fair; full & liberal Manifestoes, promising all loyal & good Subjects, a free Press, free Enquiry, & free Trade. To this last especially they should, by all means, be invited; &, if the next Campaign be but tolerably successful, I think, they will not be invited in vain. News-Papers every where greatly bias the Multitude, in America altogether ー When the King's Arms shall have acquir'd some Eclatin N. Engld, which I trust will soon be the Case, perhaps N. Yorkwillbe found to be the best Station for the main Army.