I send you enclosed a letter of important intelligence, a great deal of which I believe, although the author towards the end of his letter speaks doubtfully of his means of information. What appears to me the least credible is that France, being in expectation of a junction with Spain, should risk an engagement with Mr Keppel’s fleet.² Nothing can induce her to take such a step but a great and decided superiority; this she will certainly not have if the five additional ships of the line which are sent after Mr Keppel should join him in time. Important, therefore, as the stake is for which we contend, it is devoutedly to be wished that France should try her strength with us before Spain declares herself.

From the frequent interviews between the rebel agents and Captain Jones,³ we may depend upon some attempts being made soon upon the coasts of this island; and, indeed, all that part of the letter which relates to the design of France to insult our maritime places with fleets of frigates agrees perfectly well with some intelligence I received about a year ago, and therefore appears to me very credible.

This puts me in mind of an important matter which had really escaped my memory. When I was last in town I met the Duke of Northumberland at Court, who told me that they were very uneasy in the north for want of two ships of war which they expected to be furnished with by the Admiralty. He renewed their offer of providing the seamen, and appears to have given up his request of a particular protection for them, seeing, I daresay, how impossible it is for the Admiralty to grant it.

There is certainly no part of the coast where such material mischief can be done in as short time as in his Grace’s neighbourhood. I am [etc]

[Enclosure.]

Intelligence from Paris, 2 July 1778⁴

Captain [Paul] Jones is still here by the connivance of Dr Fr[anklin] to assist in planning the enterprise intended by this court. A. Lee and J. Adams, not being in the secret, are angry at the delay and threaten to suspend him; the Dr says, let him answer to Congress for neglect. He⁵ is intimately acquainted with the coasts of England; and the object of France is to send several fleets of frigates on different expeditions against the east and west coasts of England with troops on board to burn and destroy all they can. And if Keppel’s fleet should be beat, then to make a regular and powerful invasion.

Spain has certainly agreed to accede to the treaties with America as soon as the ratifications of Congress arrive here; and Count d’Aranda⁶ has the necessary powers in his pocket. We expect the fleets will join in the Bay and act with France immediately after. The circuitous expedition lately mentioned is laid aside for the present, for want of some ships of the line expected from Holland for France account, but pretendedly in part for Spain. They won’t be ready till September: I shall know more in time. . . .

I hear the Brest fleet will certainly endeavour to intercept your fleets and vessels, and if Keppel appears as certainly attack him. Five Guernsey and Jersey privateers have been brought into the western ports of France by the frigates. Captain Amiel is gone by Dunkirk to Flushing to fit out and command a ship of war under a Congress commission.⁷ You may depend Deane only embarked in the frigate for a day or two’s concealment, and that he went on board the admiral at sea and will continue there till arrived.⁸ The passing the Western Islands by d’Estaing’s fleet, I hear, was sent by a corvette; and it is thought that the plan of their first operations was sent to M. de Sartine. I can learn nothing with any certainty, and I shall deal less in opinion and conjecture.