Most Secret
No 57

My Lord As great Latitude is left me, in the Execution of the order transmitted me, in Yr Lordships Letter No 29,² and as the Business is of considerable Nicety, as well as Importance, I will venture to state to Your Lordship, ー What has occurred to me upon it, after turning it much in Thoughts, and weighing it with all the Attention I can. ー The objections to an unfavourable answer, are too obvious to be dwelt upon, and that in the present moment, we should receive such an answer as we wish, is more than I can bring myself to expect; Besides the desire, this Court naturally have, to protract the American War, till, it waste our strength and Tresure, which desire, must make them averse to anything, that tends to damp the Hopes of the Rebels, They think My Lord, that France is a Gainer, by the Trade, she is beginning to carry on with America, and in a great commercial, and Natural View, would as much wish to wound the Act of Navigation, as we must always wish, to kep that valuable act entire. To strengthen this general reasoning, I must add, that I have been, more than once, informed, that the leading Opinion in the french Cabinet is, that they should give us friendly Professions, but should avoid any Step, that can tend to discourage the Rebels; that they should in a Word, lie by, wait the event, and take Council from it. I have been informred too, that the giving a declaration in writing, that they would not suffer the Rebels, to be supplied with Ammunition, was by some of the french King's Ministers, considered as an oversight. ー Your Lord Ship remembers, that, that Declaration was given me, upon my first shewing M de Vergennes, an Office Ld Grantham³ had past to M Grimaldi,⁴ and that Ministers answer ー to his Lordship; and then, passing an office of a Simular Nature, and conceived almost in the same Words. Perhaps My Lord, the same Method Might Succeed again. If Spain, whose Trade with the American Rebels, is much less Considerable, than that of France, could be brought to give such a Prohibition, as Portugal has given; this Court might perpaps in that, case, be induced to follow the Example of their Ally; tho they would, I doubt, not follow that, of a Court so closely connected with us as Portugal, who must consider our Prosperity, as inseparable from her own.

I can assure Your Lordship, that the Naval Preparations, carrying on in the Different Ports of France, are as they ought to be, the object of my Constant attention. I am not at present, able to add any thing very Material, to the Accounts I have already sent you. The Intelligence, which I gave your Lordship by the last Messenger, and gave it as very doubtful, I am now convinced is Not true. No orders have been given, to slacken these Preparations, The more probable opinion is, that they have been quickened ー Upon the first arrival of the News from Spain, Monsr D'Aranda,⁵ as I am positively assured, went both to Monsieur de Maurepas, and M. de Sartines; and insisted Strongly, upon the Necessity of carrying on all these naval Preparations with double Vigour, and pressed much for orders to be sent to the different Ports.

It seems to me very dubtful, whether his Request was complied with. I have been again informed, from pretty good authority, that he held the Language I mentioned in my Letter No 55, He has since changed his Tune, and now says, that M de Maurepas, and he, reasoned differently at first, but that at last, that Minister came over to his Opinion; But this Language may be artificial. ー I am inclined to think My Lord, that if any orders were sent in consequence of his application, it was only par Maniere d'acquit, and that this Portugal Business, has made no alteration in the Plan of this Court which is, to go on with these Preparations, as fast as the funds, allotted for that service, will permit. There must, as I have already observed to Yr Lordship, soon be a Diminution, of the Activity with which they are carried on, unless the four additional Millions, M de Sartines demands, can be found. This will be the more difficult, as their Treasury is certainly at a low Ebb at present, and no body imagines, that M Clugny's Management will increase the Revenue.

There are Letters from the Neighbourhood of Tulon which say, that the Preparations there, are carrying on with uncommon Activity; upon the strength of these Letters, and of the Reports that are so prevalent here, (where War has been much talked of, since, the first News from Spain) a foreign Minister, with whom I am very intimate, spoke to M de Vergennes Yesterday, and pressed him home ー He said, "That in Consequence, of what His Excellency had been pleased to tell him some time ago, He had assured his Court, that the present sentiments of France, were perfectly pacific; and that the Naval Preparations she was making had no hostile View, But that now, that he heard so much, from various Quarters, of the Activity, and Vigour, with which these Preparations were carrying on, He took the Liberty to ask him again, whether they were going to make any Armament. He added, that he had no Right to expect to be let into Secrets, but that armaments could not long be concealed, and he was persuaded His Excellency had too much friendship for him, to expose him to the disgrace, of giving his Court false Information, upon so essential a Point.["] M de Vergennes answered him, with every appearance of openess, and Sincerity, begged him, not to credit the Reports of Paris, which would certainly mislead him, said, that what they were doing in their Ports, should not be called "des Preparatifs", c'etoit seulement des Mesures de Sureté, et de Prevoiance.["] He added, that he was very sensible, that any armament, in the present Moment, would give an Alarm, but assured him most positively, that no armament was making, no armament was intended.

What adds Credit to these assurances, for the Truth of which, both M. Maurepas and M. de Vergennes, have repeatedly pledged themselves, is, the moderation with which they have certainly acted, in this Portugal Business. Such Conduct is, I think, a strong Earnest of their pacific Intentions, had they meant or wished a War, they would have inflamed, instead of Mollifying the Resentment of Spain. Tho' I think it my Duty, to state things exactly as I see them, and upon that principle, represent the present French Ministry, as friends to Peace, Yet I am very far from meaning to say any thing, that could tend, to lull us into security, having ever been persuaded, that our only real Safety, against such a Rival who will always wish, if she does not Meditate Revenge, is, that which we derive from our own Vigilance, and superior Naval Strength. I am with great truth and regard My Lord [&c.]