[Extract]
I have learned, My lord, that during the session of the House of Lords where Myd Rochford mentioned the letter from Myd Stormont, the Duke of Richmond said that this letter meant very little, and that one could rely upon Gallican faith only in as much as it would be to our advantage to keep our word. In addition, I have learned that Myd Rochford was so good as to agree with this, but went on to say, however, that it would not be to our advantage if the English Colonies cast off the yoke, quoting, in order to support his opinion, the very well written but inaccurate book concerning the history of both Indies. . . .
It is in the best interest of the Ministers not to show to the Americans the least sign of misunderstanding between us and they must be careful to keep up appearances as reality. I therefore confess, My lord, that I could not doubt for one moment their sincere desire to live with us according to the best of terms. Maintenance of peace with the outside world is the only way they can hold on; and with the exception, perhaps, of Lord Sandwich, a man as rapacious as he is capable, who believes he made himself important enough in his department so as not to lose his post should the Government collapse, I do not know any among the present Ministers who would wish war.
Now that we are confident as to the intentions of the Ministry, since their interest as well as that of England is to maintain peace, there remains for us to examine what might be the results of the measures they took to face the situation at home. If these do not complete success, the administration will fall immediately, and the King will be compelled to give in to the circumstances and receive Myd Chatham at the head of the Government. He will come to this position with absolute power. His is the only name still popular in America and he will reconcile all at the moment. Since the rebellion of the Colonies came before his administration and, therefore, could not cast a dark shadow upon it, the former will be easily forgiven. Other projects will strike his genius in order to create a diversion and draw the attention away from the domestic quarrels, gather divided passions, and erase past insults with duties to come. He will find thousands on a war-footing in the Colonies, ten thousand regular troops, a number of ships unused and ready to serve as transports, a fleet considerable for the number of small vessels more suited to privateer, in Europe, a Navy in the best condition, 17 guard-ships and 8,000 sailors. This is a naked sword in the hands of a madman. We cannot overlook the fact that these are powerful motives that would rouse the ambition of a man ready to sacrifice everything to the glory of the present; and if we consider where he might strike his first blows, we shall see a field open to vast plunder. Our fishermen and the elite of our sailors, would be the victims of the designs of a British squadron and, without any other protection than the good faith of this nation, the trade of our Colonies would become the prey of the British ships. Indeed these matters deserve the attention of the King and His Council.
If the English policy to keep constantly cruising ships in all the seas where they have possessions is not off set by identical measures, it gives them at the onset certain advantages over us that might well destroy the fragile principles of justice, especially those of a Minister who is more famous for the fearlessness of his undertakings than the reckoning of a wise foresight. He would see not without impatience that everything would be ready and that three small boats carrying the necessary orders would be enough to insure the taking of 15,000 sailors and 500 ships, a flourishing Colony even. Indeed, in these conditions, what Colony would be able to resist the forces that will be gathered in America by next summer? If at this time the control of the Government fell into the hands of Lord Chatham, and if six weeks later the troops ー of which he himself suggested the recall to parliament, knowing quite well they would not follow his advice ー have not received the order to come back, that circumstance alone would be sufficient, in my humble opinion, to take steps to organise our defense and use the wisest and strongest precautions.
Fortunately, as improbable as this speculation may be, I believe, My lord, that I should present to your intelligence all the possible eventualities considering the violent situation prevailing in England now on the eve of a tremor of which the results are most unpredictable. Undoubtedly, nothing would be more contrary to the interests and desire of England in general than starting a war with us, even with great advantages at the onset. But, too often personal motives prevail over the interest of nations and the downfall of this power would not compensate the losses caused by a war we would have to carry in order to bring that destruction about.