[Extract]
Martinique
No. 187
Mylord, Since it is undoubtedly important for the interest of France to know exactly the real state of affairs in New England, I have deemed necessary to send you, Mylord, M. de Ksain, commanding the King's frigate Favorite. I do not doubt for a single moment that you are informed of these events by way of England, but the intelligence which I have the honor to forward to you has been sent to me by reliable persons who, moreover, are on the scene of the revolution.2
If it is the future policy of France to take sides in this war, an exact knowledge of the present state of affairs would undoubtedly become the base and the decisive factor for any resolutions which might be made in this matter.
The situation of the Americans, Mylord, is almost desperate. The defeats that they have suffered are far more injurious in their effects than they are in themselves. They have spread discouragement among the troops and made the future uncertain, unless General Washington is fortunate enough to take advantage of the last spark of enthusiasm and gathers as many troops as possible in order to fight a pitched battle with decisive results. In my opinion, it is the only thing he can do in view of his present position: any rebellion which suffers repeated defeats loses its dash by presenting to every individual and consequently, and in this case especially, to the whole the consideration of a future full of the worst woes.
On the other hand, Mylord, this pitched battle which, as I dare assure you, is General Washington's only resort would be extremely dangerous any way you look at it.
He will lead undisciplined soldiers against experienced troops, people who are either carried away by blind fury or crushed under an overwhelming consternation against firm and already victorious men. He can only fight at a great disadvantage against the superiority already gained by His British Majesty's army.
We can only hope for the effectiveness of a last effort which, I .confess, sometimes produces marvelous results but on which we can count only to a certain point.
I had the honor to inform you that a number of transport vessels had arrived at Antigua and that four small frigates from General Howe's army 3 had arrived at Dominica and Grenada to spend the winter in these ports. I am with respect etc.
Fort Royal, 23 December 1776.
