[Extract]
In my opinion, My Lord, there is something more surprising than the upkeep of the finances: I am referring to the condition of the factories which are still active except for a few items that have suffered. Indeed, one mentions an increase of the exportations to Russia, Poland, Spain, Italy and especially the Levant. I want to believe in this increase, however difficult it may seem as a time when prices go up everywhere and when the Merchants must pay their sailors 50 and some pounds of our money per month. But how can we conceive that the surplus of all these articles put together can replace the lack of trade with a nation of three million men who, having the same customs and tastes as the English, dressed from head to toe and furnished their houses only with English goods? How can I convince myself that an increase of.five to six hundred thousand pounds sterling to Europe will compensate the loss of a yearly exportation worth three millions to America? Either all the premises are false, or the inadequacy of these precarious resources will soon be evident although the facts do not yet indicate such an outcome. It is believed that it would have already been felt if the transport ships which sail to America did not carry English goods in order to meet the needs of the Colonists who must use them since all sort of foreign resources are being cut off from them ....
The first reinforcements destined for Canada sailed on board the warship Isis and five transports of about 600 tons each. They carried 15 hundred troops. All these ships are not sailing on the same convoy. Each will be on her own, crowding on all sail, to see which one will get there first. Not a single moment must be lost in trying to save Quebec, if it is still time. The troops from Brunswick, already embarked at Stade, are to sail for this province and will be under the command of General [John] Burgoyne. The Hessians will be employed on Boston. An Army Corps is also destined for New York so as to be able to attack the Provinces of Connecticut and Massachusetts on the flank, command the navigation on the Hudson and cut the lines of communication between Pennsylvania and New England.
According to this plan, New England will be attacked by three Armies at the same time, from the North, the West and the South, while a large fleet will devastate the coast and cruise along its whole length in order to intercept any assistance coming by sea. They apparently flatter themselves that once this Colony, which is considered the most stubborn, will be subjugated, all the others will become divided or will fall by themselves.
The control of Canada is deemed important here not only because it would clear the way to the Northern part of New England but also because its resources in wood and wheat are badly needed to supply the West Indies as well as the Army itself.
It is therefore essential for the Americans to take advantage of the end of the winter and take possession of Canada, ~ven if it means blowing up the fortifications of Quebec before the arrival of the fleet, as well as ravaging the country in order to delay the march of the troops by eliminating their means of subsistance, after having enrolled them among those Canadians who would want to follow their flag ....
This is what I was able to learn about the military operations of this country, My Lord. Yo~ will be able to judge if these measures are sufficiemly well-concerted to deserve some credence. Meanwhile, the greatest part of Nova Scotia has just taken sides with the united colonies and has decided to send deputies to the Congress. American privateers have recently devastated the Island of St. John in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. This island provided beef and other commodities to the Royal troops and the Americans wanted to eliminate this source of supplies. 2 This operation must have been planned along the lines of the expedition against Newfoundland. They bear so much resemblance that it strengthens my belief in an expediton which would have sailed from Philadelphia against the English establishments in the island of Newfoundland. Also, an American privateer was bold enough to attack the Royal Corvette Lynx in the waters of Antigua; this ship escaped with difficulty after an uneven fight and suffered casualties. 3
As for the political operations, the Council appears to be still undecided with respect to the plans it will follow. Lord George Germain who has the greatest influence and who is heard by his master, would like to entrust all the powers for a reconciliation to Lord [Richard] Howe and the General, his brother. This is not, or must not be to the taste of the other Ministers who feel indeed that their fate would be completely in the hands of Lord George or those of the Howes. I was also assured that the Admiral whose commission has not yet been signed had refused to report to the Admiralty, that he wanted to correspond with the Secretary for the Colonies and that he was ready to give up everything rather than renounce this pretention. However this matter has been settled and I assume that he will correspond with the Admiralty in all maritime matters and with Lord George in political matters. Lord Sandwich had Admiral [John] Montagu, senior to Ad, miral Howe,. assigned to Newfoundland; consequently he will not be under the latter's command during this cruise; I believe this will not hurt us in any way ....
I spoke to Lord Weymouth yesterday and I complied with the orders which I had the honor to receive in your letter No.2 relative to the conduct of the English vessels cruising against the Americans in the waters of the islands belonging to the King. 4
Lord Weymouth and the Ministers agree to all this, My Lord. They eagerly approve everything we tell them in this respect. Comparing the promises and the facts, I come to the conclusion that we could place much hopejn their intentions, were it not for th'e fact that we have everything to fear from the execution of their orders.
