My honoured and revered Lord–The packet¹ sailed unexpectedly we find yesterday; from my friend Sir Henry,² I this moment learn another will probably be dispatched to-morrow if not this evening. I hasten to embrace the opportunity to tell your Lordship that affairs at and without the Hook remain as they were in my last except that the F[rench] fleet have been ever since watering at the mouth of Shrewsbury River near the Navesink, where they appear to do it with great convenience and dispatch. A certain corroborating proof to my early opinion that they meant no attempt to force the harbour after their knowledge of our force within, as on the bar there is at spring tides bare water for their large ships and if intended to pass it they would endeavour to lighten their ships instead of getting them down still deeper. 

If Admiral B[yron] did sail, or at the time we hoped, is it not odd that d'Estaing should run the risk he does of being caught. Admiral B. being equal to his force we conclude without our junction, and we here almost equal (had the Raisonable and Centurion joined us)³ even without the expected addition of Admiral B., a deep game he appears to play, unless he has better information than we have. In the meantime 'tis said he has already sent in 30 prizes to the Delaware, taken on his passage out and on the coast, and takes daily others even since his arrival off here, some we have been eyewitnesses of. I never longed in my life to see the finest of women more than I do to see Admiral B., and his nephew [Lord Carlisle] as well as E[den] and the rest of our friends here join me in the same wish, for 'tis an important crisis!⁴ 

We hope he did sail and came direct hither; if not and first to Halifax it may be fatal. The southerly winds at this time of the year bring the Trade winds here; and the Eagle, a single ship, three weeks getting thence hither. 

On my last visit down to the Hook, to again repeat my offer and importunate request on the vicinity of the F[rench] F[leet] to be employed on the more active and honourable service, I was again told he⁵ or I must remain up here to co-operate with the army, at which time he was pleased to put into my hands large packets containing the counterparts of official orders, arrangements, &c. which were for my government on his suddenly leaving the command in chief to me: the first item I have ever had from him of such an event likely to happen. I acquainted your Lordship with my repeated offers and request of the most active employ on the earliest appearance of the French fleet and refusals. It was not only my duty but what was my wish, after coming twelve hundred leagues from my family. I presumed also most respectfully to advise fitting the Leviathan with borrowed lower-deckers from the Army,⁶ and making half a dozen of the empty transports into temporary fireships on this very critical emergency, should they attempt to force their entrance or we by any fortuitous change be in condition to go out to them. Early I thought such my duty-I wrote your Lordship confidentially, trusting that what I communicate will remain in your own bosom. We are in a very critical situation indeed. The appearance of Admiral B. would relieve us and turn the tables. 

Perusing, my honoured Lord, the several orders and arrangements and secret instructions put into my hands I cannot but feel too painful sensations (should they take place) at the certain prospect of my being left here with a force (it scarce merits the name of force) obviously and notoriously inadequate not only to the service expected from it but to any service at all, when the shattered state and condition of almost all the ships and vessels (numerous as on paper they may appear) is duly considered.⁷ Exclusive of the French, the rebels have by our last certain accounts not less than between twenty and thirty sail of armed Congress ships, completely manned and fit for sea at Boston, from 36 to 20 guns—and a nigh equal number in South Carolina—besides belligerent ships and vessels vegetating in every harbour and creek daily all along the coasts; ours, though at this time numerous, are all foul, out of repair in hulls, masts and yards, and in want of stores. 

The several various arrangements, drafts, and deductions from this debilitated number that are directed by the arrangements in the secret instructions will leave but little behind of serviceable, or of force and consequence to act hostilely and offensively, or indeed to show their heads out of port—exclusive of that distress—completing paragraph: 'to send the remainder also to E[ngland], including those which may be in the River St L[awrence] &c.' The previous arrangements and sundry many appropriations would reduce this force to a very inoffensive one, foul, out of repair, and in want of stores, joined also to the several convoys likewise pointed out and directed; and should I not then, my revered friend and honoured patron, be left with very inadequate means to do my duty? 

That conclusive paragraph would, I fear, make me poor indeed by robbing me of the power of doing service, few remaining and unconditioned ships and vessels and without possibly an asylum or port. Deign then, my dear Lord, as you bid me write confidentially everything, to commiserate my prospect as to situation, nor suffer my fate to be so wretchedly changed from that which I was given to be assured of when I quitted my dockyard.⁸ My fate is in your hands, and I am happy in that confidence and contented.... 

New York, July 21. 

The packet not being yet under sail, I have time to tell my honoured that this moment Sir H. C[linton] shows me a written intelligence just received that d'Est[aing] and General W[ashington] 'tis said meditate a general attack here at the same time. We here are all happy at the idea, as it will bring affairs to an issue; the Army holding themselves ready and equal to the whole force they can possibly bring, and the Navy as clearly deeming it impossible, but that they must lose their ships if they should attempt the harbour. Some fishermen escaped from them and deserters say they give out they only wait the spring-tide and pilots; we fear 'tis only a gasconade, and that 'twill end in a Spithead fight.⁹ 

If Admiral B[yron] does but appear 'twill be glorious; we hourly pray for it as the most fortunate event that Heaven can bless us with. I send the Leviathan down to-day with a lower deck tier of 32, 24, and 18, being what I could borrow from the Train. I hope the fireship will be finished before the day after to-morrow that the tides lift, although I have no ideas that now they mean that attack; up here I think they may attempt something, but without success. But, my honoured Lord, I am more apprehensive that if they remain here, and we are not relieved, we shall be distressed for provisions: that is a serious matter with such a multitude as here, and if the Cork fleet should be intercepted, the consequence dreadful unless we are relieved....